| AParra
- 30 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 82
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| Sorry about that I mean a rating set.Thanks
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- 30 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 658
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HEY DON JAMES.......nice to see u on the forums. :)
I do personally believe Billy will take at least a set off of Danny. If I HAD to predict this match I'd say 4-2 Danny 21 games to 16. Billy's playing his best ever in my opinion so we all could be surprised by a potential upset.
Don, what's your prediction?
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| carolina phil
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 1084
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Danny wins the first set, 4 to 1.
Billy wins the second set, 4 to 2.
Danny wins the third set, 4 to 2.
Billy wins the fourth set, 4 to 3.
Danny wins the fifth set 4 to 1.
Billy wins the sixth set 4 to 2
Danny wins the final set 4 to 2.
Danny defends 4 to 3
Carolina Phil
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| DRAGO
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 46
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sjrbat said:
Danny has 10 championships and as great as Billy is, he has only won ONCE
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Outstanding logic! I assume you think Jesse Douty would be the favorite over Danny as would Mark Robbins be favored over Billy?
sjrbat said:
The only one i think is willing to wager with you is Davis, since he tried last time with your 4-0 predictions in which you were wrong on some of them.
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Let's get this straight. I made 5 predictions for the first Chicago trip. I picked the UNDERDOG in 4 OF THE 5 MATCHES! My only "chalk" pick was Stubbs over Accrocco. I got 3 of my 5 picks EXACTLY CORRECT (including exact set count).
Someone who understands the way odds and gambling work would see my predictions were stupendous. Someone not so bright (Paper Dragon) would "challenge" someone's specific predictions (Like Q 4-0ing August), which were something like 15 to 1 shots and want to bet that exact prediction STRAIGHT UP at EVEN ODDS.
This is not what I did at all, I offered betting odds on the match straight up. Based on Syed's "analysis" the 4 to 1 seemed more than fair. I think the correct odds are closer to 3 to 1. If anyone wants to bet on the match at those odds ($150 to win $50 minimum bet), I'll cover up to $4.5k ($1.5k on my end).
sjrbat said:
When I read Dan's post or other people's posts I either agree with them or state my OPINION. But, when I read your posts, it seems BITTER and ENVIOUS. They leave a bad taste in my mouth.
The Houston vs. Chicago rivalry is good for the sport of air-hockey, but your BITTER and BLUNT rants (mixed in with some opinions) are getting old. As good a player as you once were (and probably still are), your attitude (in my OPINION) needs adjustment.
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Syed, Have you lost your mind? My post was one line asking if anyone wanted to bet on the match. You need to read it again. You are the one who said Billy would be very lucky to win a single set and Danny was basically better in ever aspect of the game. Paper Dragon's personal and illogical response to my first set of Chicago predictions was far worse than my one line. This was my SECOND post ever on these forums and you say my "BITTER and BLUNT rants are getting old"? Who is "Envious"? Look in the mirror, sounds like someone is projecting. This was an obvious attempt to try and "slam Don and maybe I'll get points with the so-called "in" crowd".
As far as the match goes, I'll show you in my text post what a proper logic based breakdown of Danny and Billy looks like and where your "analysis" is flawed.
DJ
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| DRAGO
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 46
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I'm going to analyze Syed's breakdown and give my opinion on what the strengths and weaknesses are for each player headed into next week's match. The important thing to note is when I talk about a perceived weakness in these two player's it is only a weakness when compared to another top five player or each other. These are the top two players in the sport right now. A weakness is an area where they are maybe top 7 or top 10 when compared to Air Hockey's elite of elite and still better than 99% of the Air Hockey world.
I don't think you can really analyze a match by making a check list and then counting up the checks to determine the winner or favorite. The degrees of separation (and individual style match-ups) are too important for a simple check list analysis to prove accurate. However, because it's interesting I'll play along...
sjrbat said:
Offense: Billy has a great offense (LWU, LWO, RWO, CUT, CROSS) but Danny (HE HAS EVERYTHING) is not limited to any particular shots as Billy sometimes can be. ADVANTAGE: Danny
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I guess what Syed is trying to say is Danny has a right wall under and Billy does not? Syed's backup here makes little or no sense. The measure of an offense is how many shots you have? Variety is certainly a good thing to have offensively but it's not the deciding factor. Jose Mora (a top 5 offensive player of all time IMO), has less variety than some expert players in his attack.
The ability to score the puck is made up of several things. Accuracy is an important factor not mentioned by the OP. In terms of accuracy an in-practice Billy Stubbs is #1 all time accurate player period (no possible argument)! Furthermore, having an overall complementary and strategic attack is important(even more so in a challenge match). I think a huge aspect of offense is having big weapons (versus a variety of good shots). In this match-up I think Billy is superior in formulating offensive attacks and 3 of the 4 biggest single shot weapons belong to him. Therefore, in Offense, I give an edge to Billy.
sjrbat said:
Defense: Advantage Danny but if somehow the match goes more than 5 sets, this is where the endurance difference will come in.
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I don't get why lack of endurance would affect defense most at all??? (I'll talk about endurance later). Defense encompasses a lot more than just blocking shots (where I grade them about even). Danny's ability to steal pucks and turn defense into offense (which Syed labels "transition") is what really sets him apart. I do agree with Syed and give Danny a slight to significant edge in Defense.
I'm nearing my character limit so I''l continue in next post
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| DRAGO
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 46
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continued...
sjrbat said:
Transition: Advantage Danny but again the longer the match, endurance can play a factor.
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I think this area causes a lot of misunderstanding. Transition play should not be separated out from the offensive and defense. I think what Syed is referring to is Danny's ability to snag pucks and put the puck in a "transitional" stage while playing defense. I agree this is one of Danny's biggest strengths and it's the main reason I graded his defense superior to Billy in this area (although this is perhaps Billy's greatest area of improvement over the last few months). Danny scores a lot of points in transition and as we all know is the King of Cheese (meaning "cheap" opportunistic goals), I would categorize this as part of Danny's offensive game.
There is always overlooked flip side to transition. That is the going from Offense to Defense. This is one of Danny's biggest weaknesses. Paper Dragon based a lot of his game against Danny trying to exploit Danny's sketchy performance in this area.
People seem to overestimate transition games of player's who play fast and hit a lot of chase shots. George Anderson, Goran Mitic, Robbins etc. get a little too much credit for playing fast (out of control?) and having good transition games. To me the best transition player of all time is Tim Weissman. Tim didn't hit chase shots (yes I know about the TWO points in 1989 finals), but he controlled the puck and was almost impossible to score on in transition. Billy like Tim is good at stopping transitional scoring and controlling the puck. So if I had to pick an edge in Transition, which I won't, it would be closer than Syed asserts.
PUCK CONTROL:
This is what I might replace Transitions with on my checklist. This can really be fluid for a player depending on the amount of practice they have. Kind of an underestimated area - a player like 'lil Fletch (without a top offense or defense) used puck control to propel himself into the top 10 on several occasions. Danny is not perfect in this area. His turnover rate and bad fouls (loss of mallets) is far greater than most of his contemporaries. However his ability to stop, alter and engage an out-of-control puck is very very high. I believe I would give Danny a slight edge over Billy in this area normally. Due to Billys current level of practice I see it as a push.
Hey TRAVIS, these character limits are ridiculous. Read on for a flame job on Syed's "breakdown" of adjustments and my analysis of endurance in this match...
continued...
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| DRAGO
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 46
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Thanks for staying with it Dear Reader
sjrbat said:
Adjustments: Danny has 10 championships and that means he knows how to adjust to every kind of player. Advantage Danny
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FLAME ON: No way to be delicate here. This is plain stupid! A challenge match is a whole different animal. In a tournament you really don't have to adjust that much, there is not time. The logic that because he has 10 titles he is the best adjuster is laughable. Ehab Shoukry (with only 2 titles) is far superior to Danny (and Billy) in this regard.
In fact, Danny is one of the worst challenge match player's (RELATIVE TO TOURNAMENT PERFORMANCE AND SKILL LEVEL) in the sport! Danny's two BAD losses to PD and his loss to Mark Nizzi do not compute. These players beat Danny badly. Danny was not able to adjust at all mid-match.
I think what Syed should have asked was about challenge match skills. Being a good challenge match player has additional elements not present as much in a tournament: adjustment and preparation (game planning - where Nizzi has shined).
Now to be honest, Billy doesn't have a great track record in challenge matches either. His recent win over Ehab is by far his biggest match win. Billy has been prone to an almost stubbornest to adjust his game in the past and has been not as competitive as he should've been in some matches. Because Billy will undoubtedly receive better coaching during this match, I give him a slight edge in this area.
sjrbat said:
Believe it or not I don't think this is important and only give a slight edge to Billy. There is "in-shape" and there is "in-air-hockey-shape". I think Danny is in good to great air hockey shape. If this was a cross country race, triathlon, or pull up competition I'd say Billy was a 100-1 favorite. This is Air Hockey. I've seen a very "round" Danny get knocked into the losers bracket early on a Saturday and then spend two days using his "roundness" to "roll" all over the competition, playing a lot more matches than everyone else. There is enough time between games and sets that I think Danny will not have to call in the paramedics. If the arena is extra humid I could see Danny's sweating all over his side of the table (esp if Billy declares no special sweat timeouts - WHICH HE SHOULD 100% DO!) becoming a small small advantage to Billy. Billy "Trevor Reznik" Stubbs looks a little "angular" for my tastes and may not necessarily have the "winter reserves" the fireman brings to the table late. So for endurance I say: non factor.
sjrbat said:
Uh Ok, nice backup here. I think the pressure is actually on Billy for this match. As i discussed neither player has a great challenge match history. Billy maybe playing his best ever, but Danny has a hometown advantage and a physiological advantage in their recent play history. I therefore give the edge to Danny.
DJ
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| Davisl
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 168
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Danny vs Billy are 1-1 in their last two matches, I think? And their last few matches prior all went 7 games.
Tim and Billy defeated Ehab and Danny in Championship Doubles.
Billy best shape and AH playing shape of his life. Is that even Billy playing, I can't even tell from the vids. I have no idea if Danny has even touched a mallet, but I'm pretty sure he's touched a double cheeseburger recently.
Billy coming off his biggest challenge match win and thumping Accrocco.
I'll wager $500 on Danny straight up. Oh yeah, Paper Dragon is pretty funny, it actually cracks me up every time. Don, if you ever want to play a challenge match for some money, let me know, I need to add to my 7 year unbeaten streak.
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| Davisl
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 168
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I just reread Don's analysis, and I'm not going to break it all down because I'm not that bored, but I believe his analysis is horrible. He really comes off like he knows what he is talking about, but I think he has been away from the table much too long. When I discuss with Ehab and Billy, we come to the same conclusions about things pretty quickly and are on the same page with strategy and player strengths/weaknesses. I guess this comes from actually being in the arena at the highest levels and winning in the finals.
There's not enough time to adjust mid-match in a tournament? Kidding right? TW adjusts like 4x mid-GAME! If I didn't adjust, I would get 4-0ed every time. Billy has adjusted against me and come back to win many sets. And Billy being able to devise better offensive attacks than Danny? Haha. Danny just doesn't get credit for being an offensive genius, but when he's going right, he's as hard to stop as anyone. He will hit 4 consecutive RWO or offspeeds, no one but Jose would do that.
Don's analysis is entertaining and good for the sport, but everyone keep in mind, he is more like a Charles Barkley than a Jim Nantz.
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| travis
- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 530
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DRAGO said: continued...
Hey TRAVIS, these character limits are ridiculous. |
Well, I can adjust them. Considering you've only posted on the forums a half dozen times and I haven't had but a couple of questions regarding the character limit, it hasn't really been a high-priority item for me.
As for Danny and Billy, I predict that it will go at least 6 sets.
Travis Luscombe
AirHockeyWorld.com Webmaster
http://twitter.com/air_hockey
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- 31 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 658
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Davisl said: Danny vs Billy are 1-1 in their last two matches, I think? And their last few matches prior all went 7 games.
Tim and Billy defeated Ehab and Danny in Championship Doubles.
Billy best shape and AH playing shape of his life. Is that even Billy playing, I can't even tell from the vids. I have no idea if Danny has even touched a mallet, but I'm pretty sure he's touched a double cheeseburger recently.
Billy coming off his biggest challenge match win and thumping Accrocco.
I'll wager $500 on Danny straight up. Oh yeah, Paper Dragon is pretty funny, it actually cracks me up every time. Don, if you ever want to play a challenge match for some money, let me know, I need to add to my 7 year unbeaten streak. |
Correction : PD doesn't find being called "paper dragon" very funny at all, and it doesn't make him smile either. And 7 years since u lost last. Wow! Good job Davis!
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| tableman
- 02 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 690
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DRAGO said: sjrbat said:
Danny has 10 championships and as great as Billy is, he has only won ONCE
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Outstanding logic! I assume you think Jesse Douty would be the favorite over Danny as would Mark Robbins be favored over Billy?
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Don, speaking of logic (or the lack thereof): If Danny's Championships were all in the 70's and 80's (as mine and Jesse's were) then you would have a point. Syed's point is: Danny in not only 10-time Champion, but also CURRENT Champion; and his 10 titles have all come in the past 10 years! Whereas Billy's last title was in 1995. At least on paper that gives Danny the edge.
I will agree with Don that Danny is relatively a stronger tournament player than match player. Witness his three losses of the #1 Ranking in Challenge matches. Tim in his later years especially was a greater challenge match player than tournament player. Nizzi is far and away a greater match player than tournament player.
Given Danny's match history, and Billy's conditioning, practice, and motivation level, I think this match is even money. Should be a great battle.
Mark
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| TWeissman
- 02 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 210
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I do agree that Danny is by the far the favorite in this match. On paper he is definitely a 4 to 1 favorite.
That said, I will bet against Don at 2 to 1, figuring those odds are definitely in my favor.
Don, I bet you $1000 that Danny wins.
Take care...
Tim
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| goran
- 02 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 428
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| Tim, Ill bet $100 on Billy if you give me 2:1.
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| ajflanagan
- 02 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 509
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fractalzoom said: Can we get some predictions going on?
Billy v Danny: Billy is playing very good right now. Billy has gone from tossup sets against Ehab in the past year to a decisive challenge match win. Brian had a chance in Vegas to squeak out a win against Billy.. but the challenge match was decidedly in Billy's favor. Danny's most recent tournament finish was impressive - went right through the competition. I guess I see Danny's play has set a high bar... but Billy has improved so much. Are these improvements enough? Does Billy's weight loss and getting in shape matter? I think it could in a long, drawn out match... and for #1 - it's a best of 7 sets. I don't expect either player to roll over the other.
Here's how I score it:
Offense: Billy
Defense: Danny
Transition: Danny
Adjustments: Billy
Endurance: Billy
Intangibles: Danny
I think the only prediction I'm comfortable with is that it will be a long match.. and if that's the case, I have to go with Billy. Billy can be slow to start - and Danny could get on a roll. It will be great to watch, but I give Billy a slight edge,and he'll win 4-3.
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I think the one element that isn't really covered in all the predictions in this thread is style match-up. Maybe that's part of intangibles? I don't know.
One thing I do know is that there have been two players to successfully defeat Danny Hynes in a challenge match... Davis and Nizzi. In my opinion, there is a common element that they both brought to the table in their matches against Hynes. The CHAOS factor. It has been all but scientifically proven that most of the time, you cannot beat Danny Hynes with a controlled, calculated, methodical, tempo driven game. Just ask Ehab. You may put up a respectable fight, but most of the time you will not win. In order to take down the Fireman, you have to introduce an element of controlled chaos and spontaneity.
Billy is clearly playing the best air hockey any of us have seen out of him in over a decade... and he was damn good before. Something is different now. It seems like there is more motivation behind his drive to the top. Will that be enough to overcome Danny? I don't know. Personally, I'm still sticking with my home town hero. However, I am looking forward to one of the most amazing challenge matches any of us have seen in a long, long time.
If Billy can introduce the chaos factor that worked so well for Nizzi and Davis to his otherwise meticulous game, I predict this one will go the distance and end 4 sets to 3 (24 games to 22 games) in Danny's favor. If he sticks to the precision that got him this far, I predict Billy will put up a good, respectable fight but Danny will come out on top 4 sets to 1 (19 games to 14).
No matter what, I'm really looking forward to this match!!
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| carolina phil
- 02 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 1084
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Whether a Zebra can change its stripes and transform The Machine into Quantum Chaos is not likely. A more realistic transmogrification would be for Billy to do what he did against Ehab, but Times Ten. Work the machine, but with interjecting at the right moment that "terrible intensity" and "fast paced insistence" that takes manly control of the game and gets "in yo face". A combo of fast paced power and will that keeps coming atcha.
Although that is not the ideal chaos factor, it approximates it. Ancient warriors called Beserkers used it when necessary.
Carolina Phil
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| airhockeyjedi
- 03 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 102
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Danny over Billy is my prediction. I was impressed with Billy's victory over Ehab but I attribute that victory to a faster pace attack. Chaos, as was mentioned, is needed to overtake Danny's defense. I would rather rename this as a transistion-offense where you strike out at your opponent before he is ready on defense.
Danny over Billy 4-2 sets
Vince Schappell
2007-2009 USAA Treasurer
USAA Member since 1980
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| Q
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 497
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| Goran and I will be landing in Houston at noon. Will be heading to SRO for lunch so if anyone wants to get some AH in, meet us there. (1230-1 arrival)
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| tableman
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 690
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Goran just beat Syed the 3rd set 4-0. Syed looked defeated after losing the 2nd set, having been up 3-2 that set. Goran is killing Syed with deep unders, RW and even LW. Looks like Syed is finished unless he can dig deep and pull out supreme willpower... AND fix his D.
Mark
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| sjrbat
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 527
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Congratulations to Goran on his win over me. He is now earned the 7th place in rankings and has jumped to the top 20 in ratings.
He played very well and I could not keep up with his high octane offense. He also came in with a good game plan of blocking my LWU, LWO, and CROSS attack.
As Mark R. said in the above post, I definitely need to work on my D more. I had a very hard time with Goran's transition and chase shots. He scored at least 2 to 3 points a game on chase and transition shots. I had no answer, unfortunately.
Congratulations again....
Take care........
Syed
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| fractalzoom
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 201
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I caught the first two sets and thought there were some heart-breakers for Syed. Very close games that didn't go his way.
I thought Goran had a hard time blocking the left wall over early on. I saw Goran miss a lot of open shots when he did a pump fake or delay with the right wall under.
Syed has a tendency to charge left wall shots - which is a risky move in my opinion. If Danny and Ehab were in my town, I'd pick their brain and try to emulate them as best I could when it came to defense.
Goran has picked up his game and has a lot more wrinkles than he's had before - and he's always had good left wall under defense.
Hard fought battle. Very excited for tomorrow!
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| DRAGO
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 46
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I'll post an analysis of he Goran/Syed match later - too tired tonight and a lot of matches tomorrow.
I will accept the $1000 wager placed by Young Wolf and the $500 wager placed by Paper Dragon.
---DJ
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- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 658
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DRAGO said: I'll post an analysis of he Goran/Syed match later - too tired tonight and a lot of matches tomorrow.
I will accept the $1000 wager placed by Young Wolf and the $500 wager placed by Paper Dragon.
---DJ |
NICE!!!
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| carolina phil
- 06 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 1084
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Congrats to Goran for an impressive victory and caputuring of World Rank 7.
Syed was very competitive the first two sets, leading in the second set. It was one of those nights when even a world class player like Syed did not express his greatness on the Table. There were flashes, but not consistent.
Thanks for the competition and sportsmanship.
Phil
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- 07 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 658
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I guess PD also translates into "paper dollars" for Don!
Congratulations to both Don and Billy!
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| sjrbat
- 07 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 527
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Congratulations to Billy on a very impressive win over Danny Hynes to earn the #1 ranking in the world of air-hockey.
The first 4 sets were evenly played but but Billy took over and won 9 GAMES IN A ROW!!!! Never seen that happen against Danny.
A great win for Billy and now there might be even more interest in air-hockey because change always stirs up interest.
Congratulations again!!!
Syed
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| travis
- 09 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 530
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Congratulations to Billy, Brian, Goran and Tim for their challenge match wins this weekend! The USAA rankings and AHW ratings are up-to-date from this weekend's activities in Houston, and I'm working on applying the ratings adjustments for Catalunya. 
Travis Luscombe
AirHockeyWorld.com Webmaster
http://twitter.com/air_hockey
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| stubbs7
- 10 Jan 2012
Total Posts: 582
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I have a few people to thank: To Q, Goran and the other Chicago players for getting me in shape and improving my game. To Donovan for hosting and webcasting. And to Danny for being a great champion and player - it was a grueling battle.
I trained hard for my Houston matches. My practice resulted in a lost fingernail, an emergency root canal on the Wednesday before the match (from grinding my teeth during practice), and a scarred right knee. 
It was an amazing experience. For now, I'm going to take some time off, let my body rebuild, and start back at it when the Worlds are in the foreseeable future!
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