| DRAGO
- 07 May 2012
Total Posts: 46
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In less than a month the greatest air hockey players around will compete to determine who will reign as the "undisputed world champion" for about three and a half weeks.
The odds below do not necessarily represent my predictions. The odds listed are my closest estimation into what the actual Vegas lines should be (where the book's goal is to have equal money wagered on both sides).
Assumptions- Not participating in Vegas: Accrocco, Heilander, Marino, Mittic, Mora, Nizzi, Ortiz, Otero(or any Venzs), Rahman, Siegeworth, Thomas, Weissman, Upchurch, Yevish
TO WIN:
Billy Stubbs - 5 to 4
Seems odd to insert Billy as the favorite considering Danny has won 10 since Billy's title in '95. However, no one is playing (or has ever played?) better than Billy over the last 6 months. His dominant challenge match victories over Danny and PD make this his tournament to lose.
Danny Hynes- 3 to 2
Danny has a good draw and played super high level Air Hockey against Billy in the first 4 sets of the match. It will be interesting to see how Danny responds to not being the pre-tournament favorite, which has not been the case for around ten years.
Rehab Shoukry- 8 to 1
Vegas would probably not put a line on Ehab due to the unknown of his health. If Ehab is 100% healthy I think the correct line to close to 5 to 1, but if his reconstructed shoulder is not up to snuff, the right number might be 20 to 1. On top of this, Ehab does not have a good draw. Being in the same half as Danny is bad for him and a possible upset to a Colorado player in the round of 8 looms if he's not the Magician of old.
Paper Dragon- 10 to 1
I think the short term dominance over Danny is over, but PD clearly is the number four favorite regardless of who is playing. PD and Ehab really need to arrange a "match" before the tournament. PD would be much better off as the 3 against Danny rather than the 4 against Billy.
Field- 30 to 1
There should only be 5 people graced with "master" tag this tournament. It's a very shallow and weak field. Normally, if you only give odds for the top 4 the field would be a very solid bet, but not in this environment. Believe it or not, in this group I give Q the best chance in terms of actually winning the tournament. I think he's about a 100 to 1 shot, but he's in sick practice, matches up well with PD and is probably Billy's toughest match-up outside of the top 5.
ODDS to Make Top 10 in next post
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| DRAGO
- 07 May 2012
Total Posts: 46
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Odds to make Top 10:
Jeff Nickroy- 1 to 4
'lil Keith Fletcher- 1 to 4
I know I said Q was the most likely "to win" of the players in the Field but it doesn't necessarily make him the favorite to finish top five or ten. The Colorado boys are a little "surer" bets. Both are very consistent as of late. In this weak of a field , 'lil Fletch is probably immune to his "Fletchie Fold" to the old pro B bracket.
Travis Luscombe- 1 to 3
Brian Quesadilla- 2 to 5
Dan Meyer- 2 to 3
I love Travis' game but am not sure about his level of dedication; there was a time I thought he was going to pass Brain and 'lil Fletch as the Ultra Pro gatekeeper, but that has yet to materialize. Q 's realistic range (3-17) is the biggest at the tournament. Dan "The Love Pump" Meyer could make a jump similar to Q's last tournament and is bound to benefit from being a key member of the best practice group in the country.
August "The Sieve" Parra- 1 to 2
Pete Limpcock- EVEN
Ramiro Castanza- 3 to 2
Add Syed to this group and you have what looks like a terrible Carter Cup team - The "Goofy Masters". I think GC would be favored over this group in a CC match (with Owen still on the roster). Stay tuned for ILL State results, as Limpy's odds may need to be re-tuned.
Phil Arnold- 2 to 1
Mark Robbins- 5 to 2
If I had a couple of dollars to bet, I'd probably put them right here. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Phil and Mark battling in a spin off finals on Sunday - whether it be the Master's Elimination (9-12), Beardon Bracket (13-16), or The Fletcher Memorial (17-24).
George Anderson- 4 to 1
Joe Cane- 10 to 1
Cory Dzbinski- 25 to 1
George is a little bit of an unknown, could be a very dangerous player to some above him on this list if he's in form. Cane has watched 3,348 hours of film over the last twenty years and is a damn good video game player. He's bound to improve at some point...maybe. I have no idea who Cory Dzbinski is. That being said, he's by far my favorite California player. I hear he's a great disc golfer (and I need free lessons), I like his facebook page, and I don't think he hangs with PD or Cane. Good enough for me!
FIELD- 10 to 1
No idea who the top guys are here. I think the top ten is filled our from the group above.
Good Luck to everyone in Vegas
---DJ
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- 07 May 2012
Total Posts: 658
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I love it when DRAGO posts, great job Don! Some of the stuffs flat out funny. "Brian Quesadilla", "Pete Limp..." LOL!
-Nizzi
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| ajflanagan
- 07 May 2012
Total Posts: 509
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A few minor points...
Phil is wayyyy out of practice coming off an injury. He has attended one weekly in the last couple of weeks that I'm aware of to knock the rust off and didn't really push himself to hard. I would expect Phil to play, even if he had to play opposite handed. I wouldn't expect a high finish.
Chris Haggberg threw his hat into the ring today for Vegas. He's got at least 6 or 7 years of rust on his game, but hey... you never know.
I couldn't say for sure, but I doubt Ramiro is attending.
Joe Cain has recorded well over 3,348 hours of game tape over the years. Unfortunately, nobody has seen any of it so it's doubtful he has actually studied the tape.
As for who the tournament favorite is... I think it's only fair to go with Hynes. You simply cannot compare a successful challenge match player to a successful tournament player. They are two very different animals.
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WWW.AIRHOCKEYWORLDEVENTS.COM
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- 07 May 2012
Total Posts: 658
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Good point Andrew with comparing Challenge match to tournaments in player comparison. However, Billy is an awesome tournament player too, and he's playing better than ever. Billy has beaten both Danny and Ehab in tournaments, although not as much as they've beaten him. Regardless I think Danny and Billy are the top 2 favorites in many peoples eyes, and as well in mine.
It will be interesting.
Don! Why don't you start playing in tournaments again? I don't care if you're in practice and finish top 3, or are out of practice and get beaten by Nick Geoffroy and finish 11th. You should play! I know i know, i have very little room to talk considering i haven't played much lately. However, i've only missed one World Championship level tournament since i first began in 2000. I want to see you team up with Tim again, so me and Paper Dragon can take you guys on! :)
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| carolina phil
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 1084
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Although ruptured disks in Sept put this horse down for five months, he got through it with no surgery and no injections, just bit the bullet. Then raquetball ripped my right arm tendons from the elbow in February, put this horse on a slow heal. But don't bring out the shotgun, cuz
during my down time I have been playing basketball with my left hand and on weights at 24hr Fitness. Plus got ice packs in bed at night and bought a laser device to radiate the tendons.
When I get back to AH full power in a few months, you can bet I will be motivated.
Carolina
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| Davisl
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 168
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We are quite fortunate to have our own version of Charles Barkley commentating on our sport. The similarites are quite striking:
- fat, bald, ugly
- huge ego
- no championships
- gambling addict
- more money than they know what to do with
- sorta knows what they are talking about 35% of the time
- says dumb crap that is humorous to the lowest common denominator(unfortunately I'm in that group most of the time)
- one big difference, one is a hall of famer and the other isn't
We just need to find Don "Chucky" James Jr. a Kenny Smith blowup doll and we will have the best analysts in the sports world. I will never forget when he said with a straight face during the doubles final, "Tim, control your breathing, in...out...in...out." Classic.
Thanks for the analysis Chucky!
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| jasonstevens
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 176
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Davisl said: We are quite fortunate to have our own version of Charles Barkley commentating on our sport. The similarites are quite striking:
- fat, bald, ugly
- huge ego
- no championships
- gambling addict
- more money than they know what to do with
- sorta knows what they are talking about 35% of the time
- says dumb crap that is humorous to the lowest common denominator(unfortunately I'm in that group most of the time)
- one big difference, one is a hall of famer and the other isn't
We just need to find Don "Chucky" James Jr. a Kenny Smith blowup doll and we will have the best analysts in the sports world. I will never forget when he said with a straight face during the doubles final, "Tim, control your breathing, in...out...in...out." Classic.
Thanks for the analysis Chucky! |
lol
golfclap
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| drftwd
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 70
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Don( Mr.Potato Head )James sounds better!
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| Petesimple
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 319
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Don James,
you never cease to amaze me.
~pete
www.petesimple.com
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| sjrbat
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 527
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Considering I will not be at the Vegas tournament, it will be hard to finish in the top 10.
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| sjrbat
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 527
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Billy Stubbs 2376.8
Danny Hynes 2353.24
Ehab Shoukry 2226
Davis lee Huynh 2136
Keith Fletcher 1953
Nick Geoffroy 1914
Brian Quezada 1869.2
Goran Mitic 1824.68
Travis Luscombe 1813
George Anderson 1805
August Parra 1733.04
Joe Cain 1728
Dan Meyer 1670.32
Mark Robbins 1645
Phil Arnold 1644
Pete L 1637
M Rosen
I believe these are the top 16 rated players attending the Vegas tournament (Goran?):
Billy vs Rosen: Billy
Danny vs Pete: Danny
Ehab vs Phil: Ehab
Mark vs Davis: Davis
Keith vs Dan: Keith
Nick vs Joe: Nick
Q vs August: August
George vs Travis: Travis
Billy vs Travis: Billy
Danny vs August: Danny
Ehab vs Nick: Ehab
Davis vs Keith: Davis
Billy vs Davis: ?
Danny vs Ehab: ?
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| underdog
- 08 May 2012
Total Posts: 22
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Davisl said: We are quite fortunate to have our own version of Charles Barkley commentating on our sport. The similarites are quite striking:
- fat, bald, ugly
- huge ego
- no championships
- gambling addict
- more money than they know what to do with
- sorta knows what they are talking about 35% of the time
- says dumb crap that is humorous to the lowest common denominator(unfortunately I'm in that group most of the time)
- one big difference, one is a hall of famer and the other isn't
We just need to find Don "Chucky" James Jr. a Kenny Smith blowup doll and we will have the best analysts in the sports world. I will never forget when he said with a straight face during the doubles final, "Tim, control your breathing, in...out...in...out." Classic.
Thanks for the analysis Chucky! |
lmfao
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| stubbs7
- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 582
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sjrbat said: Billy Stubbs 2376.8
I believe these are the top 16 rated players attending the Vegas tournament (Goran?):
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I heard from Goran just a few days ago that he's 90% sure that he will NOT be attending the Las Vegas Worlds.
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| TWeissman
- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 210
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Don James has 5 World Doubles Titles and several Carter Cup Champion titles.
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- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 658
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| That's right! Respect the doubles titles! (I do) :)
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| goran
- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 428
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| I predict the higher rated player wins every match on the winners side from round of 16 on. Only ones that could be close in round of 16 is Q vs August, and Travis vs George. I still favor Q and Travis. Round of 8, Davis vs Keith could be close, but I favor Davis, then you go to the same top 4 we have every tourney. With either Billy or Danny winning. Who ever wins the winners finals should win the tourney.
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| ajflanagan
- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 509
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| The ratings take all the fun out of making predictions! They are too accurate!
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| stubbs7
- 09 May 2012
Total Posts: 582
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Of the the players being discussed in this thread, I think that Q, Ehab and August are the sleepers and are the most likely to perform above their seed.
Q is in the best practice of any player in the world - bar none. He's playing at Master Elite level at times. It's just a matter of him coping with pressure and dealing with the variety of styles he's bound to see at a World event. If he plays up to his potential, Don's prediction of 3rd is in his grasp, but I could also see Q losing a couple of barn burners to Keith and Travis and end up in 9-12 or 13-16.
Seems odd to put Ehab in the sleepers' list, but Ehab is being overlooked going into to Vegas because of his recent surgery, which might actually be good for his air hockey game. He has been playing in pain for lots of years. If he's able to recover fully he could come back stronger than ever and win the event.
August has come close to beating a few Master Elite players over the last few years, and this has made him hungry. I know he's in good practice - I see his name hogging the top of this site 2 times a week. The winner of the match between him and Q will go deep into the tourney on Sunday.
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| stubbs7
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 582
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Davisl said:
- one big difference, one is a hall of famer and the other isn't
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Is any air hockey player in the hall of fame?  If there was an air hockey hall of fame, there could be a very strong case made for putting Don James in it - first ballot even. If the criteria for getting in a hypothetical air hockey hall of fame is that you have to have a single's world championship title, there would be only a few members.
Speaking of, someone should start an air hockey hall of fame. I think Mark Robbins has toyed around with this idea before.
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| Davisl
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 168
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lol, that's true, no one is in the air hockey hall of fame. the criteria for boxing and tennis are subjective and not clear. i think the point rating system for 1st/2nd/3rd place finishes that Vince created a few years ago clearly stacked the singles competitors.
If PH has placed 3rd twice in a Nationals, then he would have 2 points, while Keith Fletcher has had two 2nds and a 3rd?, which would give him 5 points on the list. I would vote for Fletcher for his long record of gritty competitiveness and being one of the best ever in CO history. PH might get in for innovations/contributions to AH, but on doubles and carter cup alone....not sure. i don't know if he has any big challenge match wins.
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| jasonstevens
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 176
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Davisl said: lol, that's true, no one is in the air hockey hall of fame. the criteria for boxing and tennis are subjective and not clear. i think the point rating system for 1st/2nd/3rd place finishes that Vince created a few years ago clearly stacked the singles competitors.
If PH has placed 3rd twice in a Nationals, then he would have 2 points, while Keith Fletcher has had two 2nds and a 3rd?, which would give him 5 points on the list. I would vote for Fletcher for his long record of gritty competitiveness and being one of the best ever in CO history. PH might get in for innovations/contributions to AH, but on doubles and carter cup alone....not sure. i don't know if he has any big challenge match wins. |
http://i1101.photobucket.com/albums/g425/jbsteven/freakinoutbeaker.gif
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| tableman
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 690
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stubbs7 said: Davisl said:
- one big difference, one is a hall of famer and the other isn't
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Is any air hockey player in the hall of fame? If there was an air hockey hall of fame, there could be a very strong case made for putting Don James in it - first ballot even. If the criteria for getting in a hypothetical air hockey hall of fame is that you have to have a single's world championship title, there would be only a few members.
Speaking of, someone should start an air hockey hall of fame. I think Mark Robbins has toyed around with this idea before.
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Doing an AH Museum/Hall of Fame is definitely on my agenda before I run out of time and get stuffed in a Brunswick coffin. :)
I don't like the idea of an elected official Hall of Fame because of the voting and politics involved. Present the players, their records, tapes of them, and let people decide on their own.
Speaking of which - it'a farce that MINNIE MINOSO isn't in the baseball H of F!
See http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/235602734/minnie-minoso-the-documentary-0
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| tableman
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 690
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Davisl said: lol, that's true, no one is in the air hockey hall of fame. the criteria for boxing and tennis are subjective and not clear. i think the point rating system for 1st/2nd/3rd place finishes that Vince created a few years ago clearly stacked the singles competitors.
If PH has placed 3rd twice in a Nationals, then he would have 2 points, while Keith Fletcher has had two 2nds and a 3rd?, which would give him 5 points on the list. I would vote for Fletcher for his long record of gritty competitiveness and being one of the best ever in CO history. PH might get in for innovations/contributions to AH, but on doubles and carter cup alone....not sure. i don't know if he has any big challenge match wins. |
DJ's advantage over Keith is that he owned him in the 90's; according to Keith Don beat him 3 times, Keith won one.
But against the field, Keith would clearly be ahead, with 2 World finals appearances and 2 3rd's. Keith cemented his place in AH with a resurgence in the 2000's, IMO. Especially at the tournament where he beat Danny, Ehab, Jose, and (I think) Wil before losing to Davis in the Finals.
Mark
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| tableman
- 10 May 2012
Total Posts: 690
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ajflanagan said: | The ratings take all the fun out of making predictions! They are too accurate! |
Since I'm ahead of you (at least at the moment) in the Ratings, and you have faith in their unerring accuracy, I won't mind one bit if you forfeit the next time we're matched up.... You might as well, it's hopeless....
Mark
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| Davisl
- 11 May 2012
Total Posts: 168
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thread officially hijacked 8 posts ago.
when i got back into Air Hockey and didn't really know all the champions, i thought it would be a cool idea to have a banner with a timeline describing the champions and list their championship titles. this banner could be displayed at all the tournaments so onlookers and newbies could get a sense of the history of the sport. I had no idea what Jesse Douty looked like until I played him in 2003, and only in the last few years saw video of Bob Dubisson.
does anyone want to chip in to hire Andrew's company to make a historical banner?
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- 11 May 2012
Total Posts: 658
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| Yeah davis I will chip in, so we can make a banner with the very few champions names and amazing accomplishments on it. That way when new people go to the tournaments, EVERYONE OF THEM will know who you are, and will recognize you! And Ill even put in a few extra dollars so that your name in particular will be in big fat bold letters, along with some extra paragraphs describing your many accomplishments for everyone to read in awe (this way I can get my name in there as well for small mention with your glorious doubles titles). :)
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- 11 May 2012
Total Posts: 658
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Lol... That post of mine came off a little too sarcastic and harsh. I actually do agree we should make something out at some point describing our game and it's champions, but also point out many other people, who accomplished much for themselves AND For the game, so that its able to be what it is today. Maybe some sort of book we can make to be put on display at the tournaments.
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| sjrbat
- 12 May 2012
Total Posts: 527
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Don wrote:
"Not participating in Vegas: Accrocco, Heilander, Marino, Mittic, Mora, Nizzi, Ortiz, Otero(or any Venzs), Rahman, Siegeworth, Thomas, Weissman, Upchurch, Yevish"
Don correctly assumed that I will not be playing in Vegas, so why bother with predicting me in the top 10 and trying to be a jokester and calling August, Ramiro, and I "Goofy Masters".
It is unfortunate, a player who has never made it to the finals and would get 4-0 ed today by most of the current top 10 has so many sarcastic opinions.
It is not our fault players such as Jose, Don, Jimmy, Andy, and Wil do not partake in the sport anymore. And there is absolutely no guarantee that when and if they come back, they would finish top 10. Players like Q, August, Brian, Albert, Ramiro, Goran, and I can defintely keep up with these players with Jimmy being the exception.
So the current top 10 is there to stay like it or not. They are the ones who still practice and take time out of their lives to play in a sport only for the desire and definitely not for the money.
And if I HAD gone to Vegas, I wouldn't finish lower than 6 if not higher!!!
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| tableman
- 13 May 2012
Total Posts: 690
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sjrbat said: Don wrote:
"Not participating in Vegas: Accrocco, Heilander, Marino, Mittic, Mora, Nizzi, Ortiz, Otero(or any Venzs), Rahman, Siegeworth, Thomas, Weissman, Upchurch, Yevish"
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I think there's a much better than 50% chance that Nizzi and Thomas will be there.
Mark
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